Eight cybersecurity predictions for this year (and beyond)
In March, Gartner revealed its cybersecurity predictions for 2024 and beyond. Its analysts believe generative AI (GenAI) adoption will close the cybersecurity skills gap and reduce employee-driven cybersecurity incidents. They also predict that two-thirds of global 100 organizations will extend directors and officers insurance to cybersecurity leaders due to personal legal exposure.
Skills gap
By 2028, the adoption of GenAI will collapse the skills gap, removing the need for specialized education from 50 percent of entry-level cybersecurity positions, Gartner says. GenAI augments how organizations hire and teach cybersecurity workers looking for the right aptitude, as much as the right education. Mainstream platforms already offer conversational augments but will evolve. Gartner recommends cybersecurity teams focus on internal use cases that support users as they work; coordinate with HR partners; and identify adjacent talent for more critical cybersecurity roles.
GenAI
By 2026, enterprises combining GenAI with an integrated platforms-based architecture in security behavior and culture programs (SBCP) will experience 40 percent fewer employee-driven cybersecurity incidents. Organizations are increasingly focused on personalized engagement as an essential component of an effective SBCP. GenAI has the potential to generate hyper-personalized content and training materials that take into context an employee’s unique attributes. Gartner says this will increase the likelihood of employees adopting more secure behaviors in their day-to-day work, resulting in fewer cybersecurity incidents.
Zero trust
Through 2026, three-quarters of organizations will exclude unmanaged, legacy, and cyber-physical systems from their zero-trust strategies, Gartner expects. Under a zero-trust strategy, users and endpoints receive only the access needed to do their jobs and are continuously monitored based on evolving threats. In production or mission-critical environments, these concepts do not universally translate for unmanaged devices, legacy applications, and cyber-physical systems (CPS) engineered to perform specific tasks in unique safety and reliability-centric environments.
Cyber insurance
By 2027, two-thirds of global 100 organizations will extend directors and officers (D&O) insurance to cybersecurity leaders due to personal legal exposure. New laws and regulations – such as the SEC’s cybersecurity disclosure and reporting rules – expose cybersecurity leaders to personal liability. The roles and responsibilities of the CISO need to be updated for associated reporting and disclosures. Gartner recommends organizations explore the benefits of covering the role with D&O insurance, as well as other insurance and compensation, to mitigate personal liability, professional risk, and legal expenses.
Misinformation
By 2028, enterprises will spend more than USD 500 billion on battling misinformation, cannibalizing 50 percent of marketing and cybersecurity budgets, says Gartner. AI, analytics, behavioral science, social media, the Internet of Things, and other technologies enable bad actors to create and spread highly effective, mass-customized misinformation. Gartner recommends CISOs define the responsibilities for governing, devising, and executing enterprise-wide anti-misinformation programs, and invest in tools and techniques that combat the issue using chaos engineering to test resilience.
IAM leaders
Through 2026, 40 percent of identity and access management (IAM) leaders will take over the primary responsibility for detecting and responding to IAM-related breaches. IAM leaders often struggle to articulate security and business value to drive accurate investment and are not involved in security resourcing and budgeting discussions. As IAM leaders continue to grow in importance, they will evolve in different directions, each with increased responsibility, visibility, and influence. Gartner recommends CISOs break traditional IT and security silos by giving stakeholders visibility into the role IAM plays by aligning the IAM program and security initiatives.
IAM integration
By 2027, it is foreseen that 70 percent of organizations will combine data loss prevention and insider risk management disciplines with IAM context to identify suspicious behavior more effectively. Increased interest in consolidated controls has prompted vendors to develop capabilities that represent an overlap between user behavior-focused controls and data loss prevention. This introduces a more comprehensive set of capabilities for security teams to create a single policy for dual use in data security and insider risk mitigation. Gartner recommends organizations identify data risk and identity risk and use them in tandem as the primary directive for strategic data security.
Democratization of cybersec
By 2027, Gartner expects 30 percent of cybersecurity functions will redesign application security to be consumed directly by non-cyber experts and owned by application owners: the democratization of cybersecurity. The volume, variety, and context of applications that business technologists and distributed delivery teams create, means potential for exposures well beyond what dedicated application security teams can handle.
“As we start moving beyond what’s possible with GenAI, solid opportunities are emerging to help solve a number of perennial issues plaguing cybersecurity, particularly the skills shortage and unsecure human behavior,” said Deepti Gopal, Director Analyst at Gartner. “The scope of the top predictions this year is clearly not on technology, as the human element continues to gain far more attention. Any CISO looking to build an effective and sustainable cybersecurity program must make this a priority.”
